Craps Myths Unveiled

Believing that fixed odds increase or decrease depending on the latest throws is one of the most common craps myths for inexperienced craps players. I will use the coin flip example to explain you easily this craps myth. Having a fair coin and a fair flip there are fifty-fifty chances that heads will appear before tails and vice versa. These are fixed odds.

Now, let’s assume that heads is thrown five times in a row. If you believe that this is the time when tails has a better chance to show up with the next flip because heads showed up for the last five flips this is when you are falling for a myth. Thinking that tails is due is a wrong belief and you should better understand that results of previous flips have no weight on the outcome of future flips.

The same rule applies in any craps game and actually any casino game based on luck. If you play craps games you must know that dice have no memory whatsoever and odds of any number showing remain constant and are never influenced by what occurred previously.

Have you ever spotted the big tote board next all roulette wheels in casinos? They are there to inform people of the recent numbers/colors that have been hit in the previous rolls. In case you are imagining that this tote board is there for players benefit you are wrong. Casinos know people tend to fall for gambling myths so they exploit this weakness with the purpose of getting more bets in play, bets that you normally wouldn’t make.

Imagine this scenario. Two guys visiting Vegas in a gambling week end trip. They are heading for the moment to a restaurant with no intention of stopping to gamble. While on their way they observe the roulette tote board sparkling and happy announcing that the color red appeared on the last six rolls. This is the moment when that smart idea pops up in one the guy’s head and says: “Look J., black is due for that wheel. Let's give it a try!" You see, the tote board did its job, attracted a new bet, one that the guy wouldn’t normally make. And once more, the thought that black is due, well….absolutely and totally wrong!

The same as with the dice, the wheel has no memory; it only knows that both red and black have an equal chance of appearing on the next roll. The wheel is not influenced by any previous number or color occurrences. Now, for the sake of theory let’s assume your craps system advices you to lay the 4 for $50 only after the number 4 hits three times in a row. So, this means that your craps system is founded on (a craps myth) the belief that if #4 appears three times in a row, the odds are that #7 will show up before another 4. But is this a smart craps system, a reasonable craps playing strategy?

Well, if you plan to get bored to death at the craps table…yes, it is an acceptable craps playing strategy. You are perhaps starting to loose tracks with me here after I just said that future outcomes aren’t influenced by previous ones. Well, I am nut nuts, just wait and I will explain.

Playing after this craps system, and making a Lay 4 bet under those exact circumstances (you only make a bet after 4 was hit three times in a row) doesn't make your chances of winning or losing any different than another craps player making a Lay 4 bet at any other random time. No matter of when or under what specific conditions you make the bet, the odds don't modify. The Lay 4 bet with a vig after a win always has a 1.64% house advantage. Regardless of whether you make the bet only after the number 4 has showed up three times in a row, or only when the lady next to you blew on your dice, or only when there's a full moon…the odds will never change.

On the other hand, even though the Lay 4 bet with a vig after a win is well thought-out a good bet because of its low house advantage, it's possible to regard it as bad under certain conditions. Let's take now another example.

Presume your craps system doesn't include the Lay 4 bet and under no circumstances advices you to make a Lay 4 bet. Also, presume that #4 shows up eight times in a row. The player next to you makes a remark by saying that since this number appeared so many times in a row you should bet against it. You respond, "No thanks, I'll stick to my system. It's been good to me so far." She jiggles a bit and says, "Oh, come on, I don't want to be the only one hoping for a seven." His jiggling causes you to lose focus, so you say, "Maybe you're right. Another four can't possibly hit again. Let's go for it!"

This is a scenario where a good bet can transform in a bad thing as you allowed yourself to risk more money than you had initially planned because of the gambler's craps myths. The key is to remember that the more wagers you make the more the casino gets more money in its pockets.

In the end, the moral of my story is to don’t let yourself fall for the common craps myths driving you to make bets that you usually wouldn't. Play smart, be a rock and never think that previous results influence future results.